India have kept their hopes of making it into two WTC finals in a row with their 2-0 series win over Bangladesh. Team India are sitting comfortably in 2nd spot, behind leaders Australia, ahead of their main challenge in South Africa in third.
India improved their points percentage (PCT) to 58.92 with a 2-0 series win, moving ahead of South Africa (55.76) and Sri Lanka (54.55) in the 2021-23 World Test Championship cycle, which ends in March 2023.
Australia currently holds the top spot with a PCT of 76.92. The outcome of the ongoing Australia-South Africa Test series and the remainder of South Africa’s individual campaign will heavily impact India’s chances.
Australia are all but through to the final, barring a miracle. They still have two tests to play against South Africa and then travel to India for a blockbuster 4-match test series. If they win the two tests against South Africa, they are through irrespective of the result against India.
India’s best-case scenario would be for Australia to win both their tests against the Proteas, which would require India to win the series against Australia by any margin to qualify. If South Africa wins their remaining four tests against Australia and the West Indies, then India will have to win three tests or win two and draw two against Australia.
South Africa’s best chance of making it to the finals in June would be to avoid a series defeat against Australia and win both their tests against the West Indies. But their current form suggests they would struggle to beat Australia Down Under and would have to rely on the results of the India-Australia series.
Apart from these three, Sri Lanka has an outside chance if they win 2-0 against New Zealand and hope Australia beat South Africa and India. Theoretically, England, Pakistan, New Zealand and the West Indies also can make it but it is very unlikely.